Geopolitical tensions intensify market Fluctuation, Bitcoin and Ethereum face critical support level tests

The global financial markets opened with significant fluctuations on Monday, influenced by the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The spot gold price surged to $3398 per ounce, the Nasdaq index futures fell by 0.9%, and WTI crude oil prices opened up by 3.7%. Despite this, the market's initial reaction was relatively restrained. Analysts predict that if the situation quickly eases, oil prices may retreat to $60 per barrel, but if tensions persist, oil prices could soar to $130 per barrel.

In this context, the movement of the US dollar has become the market focus. In the short term, the dollar has been boosted by risk aversion, but some strategists believe that as the reasons for being bearish on the dollar gradually fade, a rise in the dollar may become the main trading trend this summer.

Recently, the global financial market has experienced severe fluctuations due to escalating geopolitical conflicts and the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates. Affected by the situation in the Middle East, the price of gold surged by 3.17% from June 11 to June 13, but faced a sell-off after the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on June 18, declining by about 0.6% as of June 21. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has shown strong resilience, maintaining a price of 100,000 USD, and has fluctuated only within the range of 100,000 to 110,000 USD over the past 42 days. Some analysts believe that Bitcoin is gradually shifting from a speculative asset to a long-term investment, and its decentralized and limited supply characteristics are becoming increasingly attractive amid global uncertainty, potentially making it a new choice for investors as fluctuations in traditional safe-haven assets intensify.

In an environment of increasing macro uncertainty, Bitcoin has rebounded above $100,000 after falling below $99,000. Analysts have provided three possible future trends: maintaining the current range and reaching new highs; falling below the current range to $95,000 and entering a bear market; or testing $95,000 before reclaiming $100,000 and further rising to the $114,000 to $116,000 range. Specific resistance levels include $104,000, $106,000, and $110,000, while support levels are at $98,000 and $95,000.

Analysis indicates that if Bitcoin falls below $100,000, it may test $95,000 and the bull market support zone again. During the 2017 bull market cycle, Bitcoin retested the bull market support zone about 8 times, so a pullback to the $95,000 bull market support zone is considered a normal occurrence. Additionally, some analyses suggest that Bitcoin is approaching the critical support of the daily EMA-100. If the daily closing price falls below $99,000, it could trigger further declines into the $92,000 to $94,000 range.

In terms of Ethereum, the performance continues to weaken, with the price constrained by a downward trend line, breaking below the previously significant support level of 2378 USD, and showing a bearish technical pattern. It is advisable to pay attention to its performance at the resistance level of 2378 USD; if it fails to break through, it may further decline to demand levels of 2114 USD and even 2036 USD.

While mainstream cryptocurrencies are consolidating, the altcoin market is also quite flat. A token called $BlackCoin has emerged on the Solana chain, with its market story revolving around an AI-generated "dark web coin," claiming to be used for shadow markets and illegal trading networks, currently valued at approximately $1.4 million. Another token related to geopolitical hotspots is $Oil, which positions itself as "digital oil," currently valued at about $2.9 million. On the Ethereum chain, a fast pass $ERC-69 has appeared, inspired by a fictional proposal created by AI, with its market value briefly climbing to $11 million.

As of June 23, 12:00 HKT, the price of Bitcoin is $101,351, with a year-to-date increase of 8.43%, and a daily spot trading volume of $47.847 billion. The price of Ethereum is $2,239.19, with a year-to-date decrease of 32.84%, and a daily spot trading volume of $24.261 billion. The market fear and greed index is at 37, indicating a state of panic. The market shares of Bitcoin and Ethereum are 64.9% and 8.7%, respectively. In the past 24 hours, a total of 184,598 people have been liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $642 million, including $232 million in Bitcoin and $188 million in Ethereum.

As of June 20, in terms of ETF flows, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow for 9 consecutive days, with an inflow of 6.3658 million dollars on that day, while Ethereum ETFs experienced a net outflow of 11.3444 million dollars.

The top 500 tokens with the largest market cap increase today include FUN Token (FUN) up by 67.51%, Banana For Scale (BANANAS31) up by 21.43%, Bubblemaps (BMT) up by 13.79%, Keeta (KTA) up by 11.06%, and XPR Network (XPR) up by 10.83%.

In hot news, Trump is looking for trouble everywhere, and Powell will "attend the meeting alone"; tokens such as BLAST, VENOM, and SOON will see a large unlocking; Texas has become the third state to establish Bitcoin reserves; Arthur Hayes believes the current market weakness is temporary, and Bitcoin's status as a safe haven will be unquestionable; Wyoming's stablecoin WYST is scheduled to launch on August 20; Bloomberg analysts have raised the probability of the vast majority of spot crypto ETFs being approved to 90% or higher.

Investors should closely monitor the developments in the geopolitical situation and its impact on the cryptocurrency market, while also paying attention to the key support levels of Bitcoin and Ethereum.