Recently, the price of Ethereum ( ETH ) has shown a complex fluctuation pattern within the range of $3498 to $3857. Analyzing the fibonacci retracement level, the current fluctuation has gone through eight cycles, and the price has almost perfectly landed on the retracement line. This pattern suggests that after another round of pullback, ETH is likely to establish a clear trend direction.

It is worth noting that next week will usher in a "super week" with the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting and the release of non-farm payroll data. Although the interest rate meeting may bring short-term bearishness, it will not change the overall trend of a possible interest rate cut in September. Even if there is a temporary decline due to bearish factors, the overall trend may still drive altcoins to continue rising.

From a comprehensive analysis of both technical and fundamental aspects, the probability of ETH breaking upward is relatively high. However, investors should remain cautious and closely monitor market trends, as the high volatility of the cryptocurrency market can lead to unexpected changes.

At this critical moment, investors should remain calm, manage risks, and pay attention to the latest developments in the global macroeconomic situation and the cryptocurrency industry. Regardless of market fluctuations, rational analysis and prudent decision-making are always the keys to investment success.