Review and Reflection on the Hong Kong Web3 Carnival

The recent Hong Kong Web3 Carnival has sparked a lot of reflections among industry insiders. This article will provide some objective analysis on this event and the current state of the Web3 industry.

Reasons Behind the Lackluster Carnival Atmosphere

Compared to previous years, this event is noticeably much quieter. The exhibition site has few visitors, the VIP area is vacant, and familiar project parties make up the majority. This sense of quietness stems from multiple factors:

1. The layout of the venue is unreasonable, giving people a sense of emptiness.
2. Insufficient preparation makes it difficult to invite heavyweight guests.
3. The project's participation level is not high.
4. The price of the speech returns to rationality

The deeper reason lies in the persistent divide between the Web3 circles of the East and West. The presence of Western faces has noticeably decreased; even the attendance of the Ethereum founder cannot conceal the cultural and pursuit differences between the two sides. Western public chains still view the East as users rather than partners. This difference makes it difficult for both sides to truly integrate.

Limitations of RWA Narratives

RWA(Real World Assets) has become the mainstream narrative this year, but its essence is not much different from the hot topics of the past few years such as NFTs, inscriptions, and memes. From a macro perspective, the mainstream narrative of each cycle ultimately proves to be "correct."

However, excessive admiration for grand narratives often overlooks individual rights. Capturing mainstream narratives can indeed bring growth, but retention is the real challenge. Currently, on-chain applications are still limited and struggle to meet daily needs.

Institutions are facing PPT scams similar to the halo of Web2 elites. In contrast, the Bitcoin ecosystem does not overly rely on narratives and is actually more promising for development.

The Development Dilemma of Ethereum

The founder of Ethereum is currently facing a difficult choice. Regardless of which path is chosen, it is inevitable to fall into personal or collective dilemmas. Although he is young and capable, working hard, his age of 30 also brings some limitations, such as being easily deceived by petty individuals.

He fully bets on the L2 expansion plan in his speech, and the reasons seem sufficient. But where do these views actually come from? If L1 itself is good enough, is L2 still necessary? How should the gap between L2s be bridged in the future? These are all questions that require deep thinking.

The Embarrassing Situation of Web3 Games

Web3 games were once filled with high hopes, but reality is harsh. Players and investors have woken up to this fact, with only a few persistent individuals still holding on. Currently, those still investing in this field are mainly doing so for reasons such as ecological positioning and defensive strategies.

Web3 games face many challenges:

1. The incentive effect is not as good as engraving the inscription.
2. Limited user base, difficult to attract new users
3. Counterfeiting is widespread, and even audits are involved.
4. Traditional gaming companies' ventures into Web3 often end in failure.

However, the gaming industry itself remains a lucrative field. This may continue to attract some persistent investors.

Opportunities in a Bear Market

Whenever the narrative becomes unclear, it often signals the arrival of a bear market. However, for true entrepreneurs, a bear market is precisely the best opportunity. Those who have experienced multiple cycles understand better what kind of projects can survive.

Currently, concepts such as DeFi, NFT, and the Metaverse have not fully realized their original intentions. The only widely used ones are stablecoins and related transactions. A new vulnerable group - venture capital (VC) is facing unprecedented difficulties, with almost every investment resulting in a loss.

In the new cycle, do not overly rely on policies. Although there are changes in Hong Kong, the underlying logic remains cautious acceptance. The current market is dominated by institutions, and small entrepreneurs need to learn to adapt or seek collaboration.

Future Opportunities

Despite the many challenges facing the industry, it is not entirely dark. After the upheaval of inscriptions and memes, what remains is the optimization of infrastructure and a group of products that understand demand, along with teams proficient in underlying technologies.

In terms of talent, the industry has completed a round of user education, and research in universities has also begun to shift, laying a talent foundation for the future. In terms of investment direction, funds are no longer blindly chasing large protocols but are beginning to focus on tool-layer and application-layer projects with clear business models.

Cryptography is facing bottlenecks, and user operation objects are breaking through limitations. In the future, there may be compromises and integrations between centralization and decentralization. Before that, it is important to protect your attention, improve discernment, and maintain a good mindset amid cyclical fluctuations.

Conclusion

Some disappointments in the industry stem from overly high expectations in the early days. Viewing Web3 as Crypto Finance 3.0 might be a more rational approach. There will always be a group of people in the world who pursue freedom, and providing them with the best tools and facilities is enough.

What deserves attention is always those who excel in their jobs. Nowadays, as the bubble fades, everyone starts to pursue products that truly meet user needs, have cash flow, and a business model. The shift from "market dream rate" to "market share rate" is a sign of the industry's maturation.