Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction: Whales now face a critical divergence! Long-term holders pause profit-taking, new whale $105,300 cost line becomes a lifeline.

Bitcoin ( BTC ) failed to break through $120,000 again on July 21 and is currently stable around $115,000. However, on-chain realized price data reveals that there are undercurrents beneath the surface calm. CryptoQuant analyst Kripto Mevsimi pointed out that "old whales" holding for over a year have stopped realizing profits, while "new whales" (including institutions) who got on board within the last year have an average cost of $105,300, barely making a profit. The delicate balance between new and old capital is on the verge of breaking, and if BTC falls below the psychological profit and loss line of new whales, it could trigger a wave of leveraged liquidations and panic selling. Conversely, if it breaks through the previous high, the profitable positions of old whales will return. Currently, a surge in deposits at mainstream CEX addresses is warning of short-term selling pressure, with BTC currently quoted at $113,500.

[Key Behavioral Divergence Between Old and New Whale Groups, Balance on the Verge of Breakdown] On-chain data shows that two major holding groups of Bitcoin have strategic differences:

• Old whales (holding coins for over 1 year): They have continuously realized profits between 2022 and 2024, but have stopped taking profits since the beginning of 2025. Their average cost is only $39,400, with substantial unrealized gains, and analysts believe they are waiting for higher prices to get on board.
• New Whales (holding coins <1 year, including institutions): The average cost has reached $105,300, and the current price puts them in a marginal profit state. This price point has become the "psychological break-even line" for the new whale group.

Crypto Season warns that the fragile balance between new and old capital may soon be broken. A directional breakout will drive BTC into a new price range, triggering a chain reaction.

【$105,300 is the pivotal point for long and short positions; falling below may trigger a leverage collapse】 The high-cost basis of the new whale group constitutes a key support, but it also hides huge risks:

• On the Solid Ground: If BTC stabilizes above $105,300, the selling pressure from new whales is limited, and the market structure remains stable.
• Below the fall: Will trigger new whale risk avoidance behavior, potentially worsening from moderate profit-taking to panic dumping. Coupled with leveraged position liquidations, it may lead to a spiral decline.

Analysts emphasize: "Old whales watch the changes, new whales tread carefully. Both sides have not yet made a move, but the market reaction after the breakout will be extremely intense."

[Breaking through the previous high can activate old whale selling pressure, short-term concerns of a pullback] There are also variables in the upward direction:

• If BTC breaks through its historical high (around $130,000), it will awaken the dormant old whale groups, triggering a large-scale outflow of profitable positions and pushing the realized market cap to rise again.
• Short-term warning signals emerge: After several months of decline, the number of mainstream CEX Bitcoin deposit Addresses continues to rise, suggesting that nearby dumping pressure may increase.

Key Price Monitoring Levels:

• Bullish Defense Line: $105,300 (New Whale Average Cost)
• Bearish Catalyst: Falls below $105,300
• Old whale selling pressure trigger point: $130,000 (potential new high)

Conclusion: The current price calm of Bitcoin is being disrupted by the cost game between new and old whales. $105,300 has become the key battleground for bulls and bears; once lost, it may trigger a chain reaction of new whale stop-loss orders and leveraged liquidations, leading to a deep correction. Conversely, if this support can be held and a breakthrough above $130,000 is achieved, it will activate the profitable positions of old whales, bringing new liquidity challenges to the market. On-chain data has issued a short-term selling pressure warning, and traders need to closely monitor the deposit trends of major CEXs and the strength of the $105,300 support to guard against the risk of a sudden increase in volatility. The cost distribution map of the mega whales hangs like the "Sword of Damocles" over the market, and the direction choice is about to be revealed.