The portfolio's performance has seen a slight decline to approximately 15% excess returns since inception due to market challenges in July, but it still significantly outperforms benchmarks. The strategy for August includes several new stocks and exclusions.

The essay analyzes the outlook for U.S. interest rates in late 2025, emphasizing the potential pressures on real interest rates due to economic slowdown, inflation expectations from tariffs and wage inflation, and the need for balanced investment strategies in bonds and stocks.

The U.S. stock market experienced declines in all major indices, with the Dow dropping 330 points amid lowered expectations for rate cuts and concerns about healthcare stocks. Upcoming employment data adds to market caution.

The Bank of Japan decided to maintain the policy interest rate at approximately 0.5% while revising up the inflation outlook for FY2025 to 2.7%, primarily due to rising food prices. They emphasized a cautious approach, stressing the importance of actual data over predictions for future policy decisions.

The essay examines the recent rise of the yen's depreciation against the US dollar, analyzing its relationship with interest rate differentials and the implications of Japan's political instability. It suggests that the yen's weakness is driven by speculative trading rather than economic fundamentals, with a notable focus on the effects of trade deficits.

In June 2025, Japan's industrial production index showed a 1.7% increase, despite a decline in shipments. While some sectors like electronics are expected to grow, uncertainties remain. Equipment investment is steady, suggesting a resilient economy.

The essay discusses the long-term growth potential of AI companies worth holding in the coming years, highlighting Nvidia, Meta Platforms, Amazon, Aurora Innovation, and Uber Technologies for their unique strengths and positions in the AI ecosystem.

The essay reviews the second quarter financial results of multiple companies including Intuitive Surgical, Schlumberger, Charles Schwab, 3M, and Verizon Communications, noting that all exceeded market expectations in revenue and earnings per share.

The evolution of AI has transformed programming, allowing tasks to be accomplished using natural language instead of traditional coding languages. Consequently, proficiency in English has become crucial for effectively instructing AI, marking a shift in essential skills for programmers in the AI era.

The FOMC's recent meeting revealed a split on interest rate policies, with two board members opposing the decision to maintain rates. Despite ongoing pressure for cuts, Chair Powell emphasized caution, noting economic uncertainties. Future policy decisions will depend on factors like inflation and employment trends.

The essay discusses the significant fluctuations in the euro/yem market, particularly focusing on its surge until July 2024, which deviated from the Japan-Germany interest rate differential. It analyzes how the euro/yem crash was influenced by movements in the dollar/yem and speculates on future trends in relation to interest rate differences.

The essay analyzes the recent struggles of Japan's stock market, emphasizing two main factors: the expanding divergence rate from moving averages and the occurrence of a momentum reversal phenomenon. It suggests that these indicators signal potential price peaks, advising caution for future trading.
Abstract: The essay explores reasons behind the stagnation of Japan's stock market, focusing on expanding divergence from moving averages and momentum reversal. These factors indicate potential price peaks, suggesting cautious trading strategies.

The essay analyzes the correlation between the U.S. unemployment rate and the federal funds rate (FF rate), discussing how different unemployment rates in July could affect conditions for resuming interest rate cuts. A 4.2% unemployment rate might not meet the criteria for a rate cut, while a rise to 4.3% could fulfill those conditions. The focus remains on when interest rate cuts may start, with concerns over potential political influences on the Federal Open Market Committee's decisions.

・日米関税交渉の評価は半々

・日経平均42,000円までの上昇はファンダメンタルズから乖離した行きすぎ、今後の一波乱はありえる

・FOMC、日銀金融政策決定会合後の発表がある31日は慎重にならざるを得ない

・警戒シナリオは日銀の展望レポートを受けてマーケットの思惑での金利変動と政権の枠組みの変更による財政懸念からの金利上昇

The essay reviews popular stock options favored by blogger "Penguin," focusing on shareholder benefits from over 100 food and daily goods stocks. It highlights nine appealing shareholder perks and includes personal insights from Penguin's investment experience.

The essay discusses the emerging trend of quantum computing as a significant theme following artificial intelligence. It highlights IonQ's unique approach and potential for substantial market growth, while emphasizing the associated investment risks and the importance of cautious portfolio allocation.

The essay analyzes hedge fund activities regarding the Japanese yen, noting an increase in speculative long positions as of July 22. It discusses the impact of Japan's recent election results on dollar-yen exchange rates and highlights concerns over losses in yen positions amid shifting currency policies under the Trump administration.

The essay discusses the current political climate in Japan, focusing on the stability of the ruling party, the potential impacts of political changes on the stock market, and the challenges faced by the automotive industry due to tariff increases and economic fears.

The article discusses the mixed performance of the U.S. stock market, highlighting fluctuations in the Dow and gains in the NASDAQ, driven by tech stocks and semiconductor buying. Economic indicators remained stable, with sector movements varying.